What the data can and cannot answer

41 series · data through 2026-08-03

Three collapses are in scope. Not every series reaches all three, and a statistic computed over two episodes must never be presented as though it covered three. This page is that constraint, measured.

Of 41 series: 35 cover Dot-com unwind; 40 cover Global financial crisis; 40 cover COVID crash.

A series counts as covering an episode only if it also reaches the 24-month window before it. One that begins mid-crash cannot say anything about the buildup, which is the part worth studying.

Coverage by series

A muted To date with a tag marks a series that is discontinued or has stopped updating well behind the rest of the panel — its episode columns still show what it covered while it ran, but treat anything after its last date as absent, not zero.

SeriesGroupFromToRows dotcomgfccovid
US market excess return equity 1926-07-01 2026-06-30 26,274 / / /
Risk-free rate equity 1926-07-01 2026-06-30 26,274 / / /
Size factor equity 1926-07-01 2026-06-30 26,274 / / /
Value factor equity 1926-07-01 2026-06-30 26,274 / / /
Nasdaq Composite equity 1971-02-05 2026-07-31 14,476 / / /
VIX volatility 1990-01-02 2026-07-31 9,544 / / /
Nasdaq VIX volatility 2001-02-02 2026-07-31 6,652 x / /
Moody's Baa minus 10y Treasury credit 1986-01-02 2026-07-31 10,587 / / /
Moody's Baa yield credit 1986-01-02 2026-07-31 10,587 / / /
Moody's Aaa yield credit 1983-01-03 2026-07-31 11,370 / / /
Banks tightening C&I standards credit 1990-04-01 2026-07-01 146 / / /
10-year Treasury curve 1962-01-02 2026-07-31 16,849 / / /
2-year Treasury curve 1976-06-01 2026-07-31 13,089 / / /
3-month Treasury curve 1981-09-01 2026-07-31 11,719 / / /
10y minus 2y curve 1976-06-01 2026-08-03 13,090 / / /
10y minus 3m curve 1982-01-04 2026-08-03 11,631 / / /
Fed funds (daily) curve 1954-07-01 2026-07-31 26,329 / / /
Fed funds (monthly) curve 1954-07-01 2026-07-01 865 / / /
Unemployment rate labour 1948-01-01 2026-06-01 942 / / /
Nonfarm payrolls labour 1939-01-01 2026-06-01 1,050 / / /
Initial claims labour 1967-01-07 2026-07-25 3,108 / / /
Sahm rule (realtime) labour 1959-12-01 2026-06-01 799 / / /
Industrial production activity 1919-01-01 2026-06-01 1,290 / / /
Housing starts activity 1959-01-01 2026-06-01 810 / / /
NBER recession flag activity 1854-12-01 2026-06-01 2,059 / / /
Recession probability activity 1967-06-01 2026-06-01 709 / / /
CPI inflation 1947-01-01 2026-06-01 954 / / /
Core PCE price index inflation 1959-01-01 2026-06-01 810 / / /
10y breakeven inflation inflation 2003-01-02 2026-08-03 6,153 x / /
5y breakeven inflation inflation 2003-01-02 2026-08-03 6,153 x / /
M2 money stock liquidity 1959-01-01 2026-06-01 810 / / /
Total bank credit liquidity 1973-01-03 2026-07-22 2,795 / / /
Fed balance sheet liquidity 2002-12-18 2026-07-29 1,233 x / /
Broad dollar (discontinued) fx 1973-01-02 2019-12-31 disc. 12,261 / / x
Broad dollar (current) fx 2006-01-02 2026-07-31 5,370 x x /
EUR/USD fx 1999-01-04 2026-07-31 7,195 x / /
USD/JPY fx 1971-01-04 2026-07-31 14,500 / / /
GBP/USD fx 1971-01-04 2026-07-31 14,500 / / /
WTI crude spot commodity 1986-01-02 2026-07-27 10,583 / / /
Gold commodity 1960-01-01 2025-12-01 stale 792 / / /
Case-Shiller US national housing 1987-01-01 2026-05-01 473 / / /